New to fantasy football? Drafts can be a bit overwhelming. No worries, in this series of articles I will teach you the key concepts each drafter should know individually before showing you how to apply them by reviewing one of my real-life drafts, The IDP Guys Masters tournament. In this article, we will focus on ADP vs. ranks and how to use them.
Have you ever prepared for a draft and didn’t know where to start? Maybe you found some Average Draft Position (ADP) lists or some rankings from an analyst. Also maybe you watched The IDP Guys video on ADP vs ECR rankings. What does it all mean? How do you use this information?
How to prepare for your draft
Preparing for your draft is the easy part. If you’ve found this article, then you’ve found The IDP Guys website. On this site, we have ADP lists and rankings that will prepare you. All you need to know is how to accurately use them.
ADP lists help drafters know if they can wait for a round on a player or not.
Rankings will tell you who you SHOULD take before other players. However, as I will demonstrate throughout this series, it is always your team to build. Sometimes, you simply just can’t follow the blueprint.
The goal is to find players that the experts rank lower than the current ADP. For example, if you are able to take a player with the 70th pick and the experts have that player ranked at 20th, you just got a steal.
So, you are comparing players' ADP to expert combined rankings (ECR) to their ADP and looking for ECRs that are lower than the ADPS. This is what I like to call my value meter. If you can get that value meter to a whole round ahead of the drafts you are in, you are hitting the jackpot. If you are on the clock with the 24th pick, and there is a player there that the experts rank as number 12, and you are in a 12-team draft, you are now a round ahead.
Confused yet? Let’s see if I can break it down further for you by going through a mock draft.
10-round mock draft settings
Size: 12 teams
Drafting Spot: Seventh
Scoring: PPR, IDPs with heavy scoring weighting to compare with offensive players
Positions: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 2 DLs, 2 LBs, 2 DBs, 1 IDP Flex and 7 bench positions
Round 1
Per ADP, the top four WRs (Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and A.J. Brown) and the top two RBs (Bijan Robinson and Josh Jacobs) came off the board before our pick.
This is a terrible start, right? Not exactly.
If we pull out our expert analyst list we see that Jonathan Taylor, our RB2, is still available. Taylor has an ECR of six, and this is pick seven, so you are getting a steal of one pick on him.
For the remainder of the first round three more RBs (Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, and Breece Hall) and two more WRs (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jaylen Waddle) came off the board.
Round 2
Our pick this round is number 18 in the draft. Looking at our ECR ranks we notice an immediate steal. Tyreek Hill is ranked 13.67 in ECR, and we are getting him at pick 18. This is just over four picks after he was “supposed” to have been taken. So, we picked him up and called that a value of 4.33, getting ever so closer to that 12 mark.
Round 3
We are on the clock with pick 31. Let’s see what value we can rack up this time.
Let’s look at the ECR. We got a big value this round. Mr. Patrick Mahomes is sitting on the board with an ECR of 17.33. We are getting him at a value of 13.67, which is a whole round later than we should have. This is how you play the board and try to improve that value meter. I feel confident drafting Mahomes here because in a dynasty you need a good young QB. You will be able to build the rest of your team around him for years to come.
Round 4
We have pick number 42. Drake London is sitting there at rank 30.33. This is a value of 11.67. London is the lead WR1 in Atlanta. When paired with Desmond Ridder during the last 5 weeks of 2022 he averaged 6.2 catches and 85.6 yards per game. In a PPR that is good for 15 points per week. We take London in the fourth round.
Round 5
This is pick number 55. Trevor Lawrence is sitting at the top of our list. We already have Mahomes though, so we bypass him. The next player is D.J. Moore. He has a ranking of 51 and can have a terrific season with the vast majority of the target share in Chicago as Justin Fields looks to take a third-year leap. So, for us, this is a value of four. We take D.J. Moore this round.
Round 6
We are now on the clock with pick number 66. The highest player on our non-QB board is Marquise Brown. With DeAndre Hopkins leaving Arizona, Brown is now the unquestioned number one WR. Once Kyler Murray is healed there will be a steady flow of targets for Brown. He has a ranking of 61. That is a plus-five for us. So, we take Brown this round.
Round 7
We are on the clock with pick 79. Next is Roquan Smith. In 2022 he produced over 160 tackles for the second consecutive season and garnered 4.5 sacks and 3 interceptions. His athleticism is perfect in Baltimore where he’ll play in a John Harbaugh scheme. He is ranked at 64.67. That is a value of 14.33. We take Smith this round.
Round 8
In the 8th round, we are up with pick 90. Foyesade Oluokun is at the top of our board. Oluokun has now led the NFL in stops for two consecutive seasons. He is ranked 69.33. This is a value of 20.67. We take Oluokun this round, the biggest steal so far.
Round 9
We are on the clock with pick 103. At the top of my board are two QBs – Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson - which I don’t need yet. Beneath them is Jack Campbell. He has an ADP of 143, so I can wait for him.
Next is Quay Walker. He has a lower ADP of 121, and I still need two LBs. Walker led the Green Bay Packers in tackles as a rookie and will look to build on that this year. I took Walker because I’m sure I can get De'Vondre Campbell later. Walker has a rank of 99 so at 103, that is a value of four.
Round 10
We are now at pick 113. As anticipated Jack Campbell is still on the board with a rank of 82.33. That is a value of 30.67, our biggest value yet. Campbell is a rookie and in dynasty format will be with us for a long time. He also was selected as the number 18 pick in this year's draft by the Detroit Lions and should see a lot of playing time, mixing in with Alex Anzalone and Derrick Barnes. We take Campbell in the 10th round.
Key Takeaways
A lot of people like to either use ADP or ECR charts. As you can see from the first 10 rounds of this mock draft, they are best when used together. The idea is to look for the value in each round. I assure you that the value pick should be there.
Before it is pointed out, I know I didn’t take a second RB. Had this been a live draft I would have, but this was for demonstration purposes.
This method can be used the same in redraft formats but with a twist. Stick around idpguys.org to see exactly how to do that.
Thank you for checking out my article, I hope you enjoyed it! You can read all of my articles on my IDP Guys author page. Be sure to reach out to me with any questions at Porg on Discord or bryanhess0821@gmail.com and follow @IDPGuys (we have offense, too), and please consider becoming a subscriber!
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